BreakpointMeetingPL-2022-03-02
Name	MCH2022 Breakpoint meeting PL March 2022
StartDate	2022/03/02 20:00:00
EndDate	2022/03/02 21:00:00
Where	Jitsi

tl;dr:

After careful consideration Projectleiding was unanimous in their decision to move forward with MCH2022. Let's go!

Facts

Management Summary

This pad works toward a conclusion on weather to cancel or continue organizing. This is done in two ways: 1: general datasources about COVID are considered. 2: The situation, policy and event behaviour for the countries that make up for the majority of ticket sales is gathered, summarized and concluded.

Inventarisation stopped after the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium as a conclusion could be drawn:

   There are still risks for certain groups in society as every country has a medium to high threat level.
   There are still hospitalizations / IC admissions, although that number is severely lower than with previous COVID variants. Germany sees the smallest decline in IC admissions, in NL/BE these are dropping fast.
   Regardless of threat level, countries are opening up. The Netherlands is ahead but not by far. In order of strictness: Germany, Belguim, The Netherlands.
   Multi day music festivals with 30.000+ attendees are organized in each country like normal and are mostly sold out.

Intro

This is the pad for the breakpoint meeting. Goal of this meeting is to make a decicion between either A: continue organizing or B: cancel the event.

Data is gathered for The Netherlands and several surrounding countries, which make up the large majority of ticket sales. Information is gathered on March 2nd 2022.

For archival and verifiability all sources are bracketed and a screenshot is included. This is not a scientific discourse, so there might be some opinions / wrong conclsions here and there - as said by Albert Einstein.

General data / News Sources

This is a short overview of data and news sources regarding the spread of COVID-19 and the used countermeasures.

Total number of infections over time: [1] = https://boogheta.github.io/coronavirus-countries/#confirmed&deceased&ratio&multiples&places=Belgium,Germany,Netherlands,Sweden,United%20Kingdom&alignTo=deceased

Total number of deceaced over time: [2] = https://boogheta.github.io/coronavirus-countries/#deceased&ratio&multiples&places=Belgium,Germany,Netherlands,Sweden,United%20Kingdom&alignTo=deceased

From [1] there is a steep rise in infections in 2022. In Belgium, UK, Sweden the curve is flattening, in Germany and the Netherlands the curve is still going towards a peak. From [2] there are still people dying, although the rate is significantly lower compared to the peak of end 2020 and beginning 2021.

From [1] you might generalize that while the amount of infections is soaring, [2] says that a lot less people are hospitalized/on the IC /die than with previous spikes. This might be due to vaccins or the current dominant strain.

Omicron counts for nearly all measured cases today [3] https://coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/varianten

Current Situation per country

The Netherlands

Threat level 3/3, based on [3] https://coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/over-risiconiveaus. While IC-admissions>25 level ==3. There are currently 150 patients with covid on the IC. 1258 are in the hospital. The trend of hospital admissions is slowly declining [4] https://coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuis-opnames The trend of IC admissions is slowly declining [5] https://coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/intensive-care-opnames IC and hospital admissions seem to related to age, where older people are admitted much more often [9] https://coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/intensive-care-opnames, [10] https://coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuis-opnames

Local spike in brabant due to carnaval:

   https://www.omroepbrabant.nl/nieuws/4048972/na-de-polonaise-nu-in-de-rij-bij-de-teststraat-alle-afspraken-zitten-vol
   https://www.omroepbrabant.nl/nieuws/4048841/coronanieuws-7822-nieuwe-besmettingen-in-brabant

Germany

Threat level: sehr hoch [13] https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Risikobewertung.html;jsessionid=386047D57CAA8F2B9C46BC5042CA26F7.internet092?nn=2386228 Map coloring shows highest infection rate for almost all counties (darkest purple) [11] https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Maerz_2022/2022-03-02-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile The positive numbers are at peak level since november 2020, as are the PCR tests, while the IC admissions are far from the highest (such as in 2021). The number of IC admissions is not really declining since February [12] https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/COVID-19-Trends/COVID-19-Trends.html?__blob=publicationFile#/home

Belgium

Threat level: Code oranje (geel, oranje, rood) [20] https://www.info-coronavirus.be/nl/coronabarometer/ Nieuwe hospitalisaties/dag: 65-149, bezetting intensieve zorg: 300-500 bedden. trent of hospitalisations and infections is declining [21] https://www.coronaviruscovid19.be/coronavirus-cijfers

Current Policy per country

The Netherlands and surrounding contries.

The Netherlands

Events indoor > 500 people require a QR code with a confirmed negative test (1G): see https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/coronavirus-covid-19/cultuur-uitgaan-en-sport/regels-voor-evenementen Public transport mandates masks. Common advice is given, but not mandatory, such as 1.5 meter, hyiene, self-testing, max half of your time at the office, get vaccinated etc.

Source: [6] https://coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/maatregelen

Germany

Large events are possible, with a 2g/3g policy and mask mandate and limited capacity. Such as soccer matches up to 25.000 people. [14] https://www.land.nrw/media/26166 There is a 2G+ policy that is enabled when the hospitalisation rate > 6 (per 100.000). This requires the vaccination but _also_ showing a negative test. [15] https://www.land.nrw/media/26166

Belgium

All events are possible, both inside and outside, however:

   masks for both visitors and staff 
  Covid Safe Ticket  (QR) at +100 people

source: [22] https://fdn01.fed.be/documents/cb8c080662aae10c656180a9462c723a/FODKAN_BAROMETER_PUBLIEKSEVENEMENTEN_NL_DEF2_ZONDER.pdf

Current Event Behaviour per country

The Netherlands

All major festivals are selling tickets:

   Q-dance events: [7] https://www.q-dance.com/en/events
   Mysteryland: [8] https://www.mysteryland.nl/
   ... and anyone else. We know that tents and event supplies are hard to impossible to come by.

Germany

Parookaville (85.000 participnts), planned in July, tickets are on sale. [18] https://www.parookaville.com/en/tickets Airbeat One (65.000 participants), planned in June. Tickets are on sale. [17] https://airbeat-one.de/en/ Nature One (65.000 participants), planned in August. Tickets are on sale. [19] https://shop.i-motion.ag/tickets/nature-one/?utm_source=homepage&utm_medium=no22&utm_campaign=imo&utm_term=navigation&utm_content=text Fusion festival (35.000 participants) is being organized as usual, but will be held later. [16] https://www.fusion-festival.de/de/2022/news/news-detailansicht?tx_news_pi1%5Baction%5D=detail&tx_news_pi1%5Bcontroller%5D=News&tx_news_pi1%5Bnews%5D=430&cHash=0fc63f1f3e022e1c957e60c55add5c75

Belgium

    rockwerchter  , 27-30 juni, kaartverkoop: voorinschrijving, sold out, 90.000 participants  [23] https://www.rockwerchter.be/
    pukkelpop, 18-21 aug, kaartverkoop onbekent [24] https://www.pukkelpop.be/, announced, shop not open (late august)
    graspop, 16-19 juni, kaartverkoop november 2021, on sale, sold out [25] https://www.graspop.be/

Tomorrowland, 3 weekends (600.000 participants, not a typo), [26] https://www.tomorrowland.com/en/festival/tickets

Conclusion per country per metric

Netherlands

   - Situation: huge infection rate, declining hospital/IC admissions
   - Policy: very loose policy, low amount of rules
   - Event behaviour: all major dance festivals are being produced like no tomorrow

Germany

- Situation: huge infection rate, declining hospital/IC admissions - Policy: More complex rules and certainly more rules regarding spreaded seating, mask mandate and 2G/2G+. (Slightly comparable to the Netherlands about a month ago.) - Event behaviour: most major dance festivals are being organized and ticket shops are open. Fusion, in these small numbers, seems an outlier but is also planned for later in the year.

Summary

- Netherlands: the high threat level indicates there is still a high risk to society this will affect some visitors in a vulnerable position (older ones), the dutch policy has little rules and allows large events to happen, events are being organized en masse. Conclusion: no reason to stop organizing. - Germany: the high risk level indicates there is still a high risk to society. Currently the german government is applying stricter rules than NL, but that might differ per Bundesland. A trend from [14] is that there are less and less restrictions. Large festivals are being organized with little or no indication about COVID. - Belgium: There is still a risk, the country is opening up currently and there are some restrictions to events, which are slightly stricter than the Netherlands. Large festivals are being organized and many of them have already sold out.